When we say something is ‘likely’, it’s like when you have a jar full of red and blue marbles, and most of them are red. If you reach in without looking, it’s likely you’ll pick a red marble because there are more red ones than blue. Likely means it has a good chance of happening, but it’s not 100% sure.
Think about the weather. If the sky is full of dark clouds, it’s likely to rain. Just like when you see your favorite toy on the top shelf, it’s likely you’ll need help to get it. It means there’s a strong chance of it happening, but it might not happen for sure.
In a game of hide and seek, if your friend always hides behind the same tree, it’s likely they’re there again. But they could surprise you and hide somewhere else! Likely is like a guess based on what usually happens. It’s not a promise, but it’s a smart guess based on what we know.